You no doubt know the S-curve as the chart that shows progress – often of a business, technology adoption or innovation.

Something starts slowly and uncertainly. Then there’s a burst of rapid growth. Eventually, things flatten. That’s the time to repeat the cycle.

Think of EVs. Adoption was initially slow given the uncertainty around charging infrastructure, battery technology and performance. Rapid growth came with advances in battery efficiency, incentives and changes in consumer demand.

As EVs become mainstream, companies face the plateau. It’s not enough to be electric, it’s critical to invent new curves, such as autonomous driving, battery recycling or connected car ecosystems.

It’s not just products, technologies and businesses that ride the S-curve, leaders follow the same curve.

The Uncertain Beginning

At the bottom of the curve, you don’t yet know which skills will matter most. You aren’t clear – should you double down on technical expertise, or invest in influencing skills? Should you spend time learning a new platform, or build the ability to coach others?

This is the experimental stage. Some of what you try will stick, some won’t. Some changes you demonstrate will be appreciated by others – some might not.

The challenge is living with that ambiguity, and staying curious enough to test and learn.

Remember how Jeff Bezos starting Amazon as an online books store? He always wanted it to be the everything store, but there was no guarantee it would work.

The Steep Climb

Once you gain clarity on your focus area(s) and find traction, the growth can feel exhilarating. You discover a combination of technical and behavioural skills that set you apart.

Maybe it’s being the person who understands AI’s impact on your business, or maybe it’s becoming known for pulling teams together across multiple silos.

With greater mastery, comes increased confidence.

But there is an equally strong risk: believing that what has worked in this stage will work forever. It’s the classic conundrum – what got you to this point, might not get you to where you want to be.

As examples of steep growth curves, think of Satya Nadella’s push into cloud, or Indra Nooyi reframing the PepsiCo strategy to focus on performance with purpose – innovating for healthier options and embedding sustainability practices.

The Plateau – And the Reinvention Test

At the top of the curve, leaders often feel a sense of arrival: you’re competent, respected and performing well.

But the plateau is also a warning sign. You’re not the only one with these strengths. Whilst they’re appreciated and effective – will they continue to differentiate you?

What’s your choice? To remain comfortable or opt for reinvention – by looking again at what’s emerging?

What new technical expertise could shape your industry? What fresh behavioural skills could create even greater impact?

Readying for the S-Curve

At each stage of the curve, questions change:

• Beginning: ‘Which skills should I invest in? Where should I experiment?’
• Growth: ‘How do I keep stretching myself without getting stuck in one area?’
• Plateau: ‘What must I forget, and what new curve should I begin?’

The S-curve is a reminder that leadership is not a straight line. It represents the rhythm of leadership: a series of climbs, plateaus, and reinventions.

What’s the key skill?

Knowing where you are on the S-Curve – and when it’s time to invest in creating a new curve.